Madison, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

376
FXUS63 KMKX 250957
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
357 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain is likely (about 60 to 80 percent chances) area wide
  tonight across all of southern Wisconsin.

- Temperatures continue to trend well above normal through the
  end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 357 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Today through Friday night:

The fog that developed around midnight into the early morning
hours is decreasing as winds pick up. This trend of diminishing
fog will likely continue as the north to northeast winds
continue to increase and become breezy. With visibilities
improving Santa and Rudolph should have an easier time
traversing southern Wisconsin.

A strong high pressure system in central Manitoba early this
morning will move southeast into Ontario before swinging into
Quebec tonight. Meanwhile a shortwave and sfc low from the
northern plains will push eastward into the Ohio River Valley
tonight into Friday afternoon. As this low progresses east
toward the state, strong WAA, the LLJ and lift from the
shortwave will bring widespread precipitation. This will largely
be rain as there will be no cloud ice due to the dry air in the
upper levels and temps will be above freezing for the longest
period of time. The only concern for a different precip type
will be this evening where the northwestern corner of our CWA
(Sauk, Columbia, Marquette and Green Lake Co)could get some
light freezing rain/drizzle. This will be entirely dependent on
when the precipitation starts and when the WAA kicks in. From
forecast soundings and CAMs its 15% chance or less that any
freezing drizzle develops and moves into southern Wisconsin.
Temperatures will be right at freezing during the evening hours
from roughly 9 to midnight which is the best timing window as
well. Given everything, if freezing rain/drizzle does occur a
glaze or less of accums will be possible on untreated surfaces.
Once temperatures rise above freezing and rain begins to fall
any icing that did accumulate will melt over time. Therefore the
only concerns for travelers will be those leaving late
Christmas Day. Be mindful that those heading north will be
moving into a more favorable environment for freezing
drizzle/rain and sleet so plan travel accordingly. For those
hunkering down for an early night after waking up early to open
presents, the rain will continue through the overnight hours
into Friday morning. With the mild temperatures, rain and the
last of the melting snow, can`t rule out some fog developing
prior to sunrise, but breezy winds should prevent it from
becoming dense. Rain should clear the entire area from west to
east by early Friday afternoon.

High pressure will move in behind the exiting low Friday leading
to dry conditions and mild temperatures through the rest of the
day.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 357 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Saturday through Wednesday:

Saturday brings the next approaching low pressure system and
chances for precip Saturday night through Sunday. This all
starts with an upper level low swinging down from Canada into
the northern Plains and then progresses eastward toward Ontario.
While this primary trough moves through the northern CONUS, a
shortwave from the Pacific northwest will swing through toward
the northern Ozarks. Guidance tends to treat this shortwave one
of two ways, by either having good phasing between the systems
as they progress east or bad phasing with the shortwave lagging
just a bit behind. Guidance does favor these two features
eventually phasing together Sunday night into Monday. What this
all means for southern Wisconsin is that the mild temperatures
and southerly winds will continue through Saturday night. Low
chances for rain (10-25%) Saturday night into Sunday morning as
the lift moves in. Precip chances increase to around (30 to 50%)
for Sunday afternoon. Winds will begin to turn to the northwest
Sunday afternoon and polar air will come with the wind change.
This will bring a chance for a wintry mix of rain/snow that
could become all snow as the precipitation ends Sunday evening.

Winds will increase and become brisk Sunday evening leading to
quickly dropping temperatures. Below zero wind chills are
expected Sunday night into Monday morning. Will have to keep an
eye on the winds during this time period as the could be a
potential for a Wind Advisory, but confidence is low on that at
this time.

With the colder temperatures setting in for early next week, the
next chance (<20%) for snow looks to be Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Guidance suggests a low pressure system will advect
from Saskatchewan into southeastern Ontario and drag a cold
front across Wisconsin. There is some uncertainty on if we will
have enough moisture for any good measurable snow, but will
have to wait and see what shakes out.


Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 357 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Predominately VFR to MVFR ceilings early this morning. The low
level stratus clouds around 1-3 kft are very slowly eroding
from the north to the south. This will lead to a period of VFR
conditions for much of the morning and afternoon with only high
level clouds streaming in from the northwest. Late this
afternoon into this evening MVFR to IFR conditions are expected
to return to the area ahead of our next chance for rain/drizzle.
There is a small potential that terminals in southwestern
Wisconsin have a very small window of improved ceilings (maybe
an hr or two) prior to the next system coming in. Visibilites
are expected to drop to around 2-4 SM with the rain/drizzle.
When the rain and drizzle ends early Friday morning there will
be a potential for fog which will keep visibilites low through
the end of the period.

Northeast winds this morning will turn to easterly by early this
afternoon and become gusty. The gusty east winds will remain
breezy and become southeasterly tonight into Friday morning.



Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 357 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

North winds have developed early this morning as high pressure of
30.5 inches noses into the region from the north. Winds will then
turn easterly this afternoon as the high moves east then
southeasterly tonight as low pressure of 29.7 inches moves across
central Illinois.

Stronger low pressure will affect the region late in the weekend
into Monday, moving from the central Plains into the eastern Great
Lakes. This will initially result in increasing southeast winds
Saturday night and early Sunday, followed by a good chance for
gales Sunday night and Monday as a strong cold front sweeps across
Lake Michigan. Much colder air will also pose a risk for freezing
spray.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...9 AM
     Thursday to 2 PM Friday.

&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee